Data shows coronavirus can only be controlled if 8 out of 10 Australians stay home

Updated Wed at 4:51pm

The success or failure of Australia’s coronavirus fight relies to a remarkable degree on just one thing, new modelling has found.

And that thing is whether individual Australians now follow official advice — and just stay home.

The data comes from a complex model of how COVID-19 could spread in Australia, which finds:

Coronavirus will continue to spread virtually unchecked unless at least eight in 10 Australians stay home as much as possible.
If that slips even slightly — to seven in 10 people — the fight to ‘flatten the curve’ will be lost.
It also suggests that school closures have little effect on controlling the coronavirus outbreak.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144

Where do these numbers come from?

Researchers at the University of Sydney have built what is effectively a simulation of the entire Australian population using information about where everyone lives, the number of adults and children in each house, how people move around their town or city, and other details such as the locations of schools and airports.

They then essentially add COVID-19 into that simulation, watch how it spreads — and can experiment with how different measures might change its growth.

It can model what might happen with different actions, but it does not necessarily represent what actually happens in the real world.

The modelling was created by the Centre for Complex Systems and the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity at Sydney University. It has been published online but has not yet been through a rigorous peer-review process.

However, the model was previously developed to map the spread of influenza in Australia and the same team published peer-reviewed papers on those results.

Could chloroquine treat coronavirus? 5 questions answered about a promising problematic and unproven use for an antimalarial drug.

https://theconversation.com/could-chloroquine-treat-coronavirus-5-questions-answered-about-a-promising-problematic-and-unproven-use-for-an-antimalarial-drug-134511

March 26, 2020 2.50am AEDT

Author

Katherine Seley-Radtke
Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry and President-Elect of the International Society for Antiviral Research, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Disclosure statement

Katherine Seley-Radtke has previously consulted for Gilead Pharmaceuticals. She is also involved in many other aspects of the antiviral field, including serving on numerous funding agency grant review panels dealing with antiviral, antibactieral, antiparasitic and antifungal research. In addition, I have received funding from the National Institutes of Health for antiviral research related projects.

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University of Maryland, Baltimore County provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.

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An employee in Nantong, China, checks the production of chloroquine phosphate, an old drug for the treatment of malaria. Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

An Arizona man died, and his wife was hospitalized, after taking a form of chloroquine, which President Trump has touted as an effective treatment for COVID-19. The couple decided to self-medicate with chloroquine phosphate, which they had on hand to kill parasites in their fish, after hearing the president describe the drug as a “game changer.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of NIH’s National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, quickly corrected the statement, explaining that Trump’s comments were based on anecdotes and not a controlled clinical trial.

Donald Trump’s Twitter feed. @realDonaldTrump

I am a medicinal chemist who specializes in discovery and development of antiviral drugs, and I have been actively working on coronaviruses for seven years.

However, because I am a scientist and I deal in facts and evidence-based medicine, I am concerned about the sweeping statements the president has been making regarding the use of chloroquine or the closely related hydroxychloroquine, both antimalarial drugs, as cures for COVID-19. So let’s examine the facts.

What are chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine?

Please go to original

Coronavirus: ‘Nature is sending us a message’, says UN environment chief

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-nature-is-sending-us-a-message-says-un-environment-chief

“There are too many pressures at the same time on our natural systems and something has to give,” she added. “We are intimately interconnected with nature, whether we like it or not. If we don’t take care of nature, we can’t take care of ourselves. And as we hurtle towards a population of 10 billion people on this planet, we need to go into this future armed with nature as our strongest ally.”

Chinese inquiry exonerates coronavirus whistleblower doctor

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/chinese-inquiry-exonerates-coronavirus-whistleblower-doctor-li-wenliang

Report on Li Wenliang’s death says he did not disrupt public order, but fought bravely

Helen Davidson in Hong Kong and agencies

@heldavidson

Report on Li Wenliang’s death says he did not disrupt public order, but fought bravely

Helen Davidson in Hong Kong and agencies

@heldavidson

Dr Li Wenliang posted online about patients showing signs of a Sars-like illness and was reprimanded. Photograph: AP

World News from The Guardian

Sat 21 Mar 2020 02.12 AED

Sarah Marsh

At least 5 million people have been designated as “key workers” in the UK whose jobs are essential to keep the country going during the coronavirus crisis – but many are paid well below the national average, reports Pamela Duncan and Niamh Mcintyre.

Of this group, at least 1.5 million workers earn below the national median salary of £24,897. The lowest paid key workers were check-out workers and shelf fillers, whose median salaries were £10,000 and £12,000 respectively. There were 13 roles in total earning below average wages, including undertakers, welfare administrators and teaching assistants.

The median salary of the occupation groups analysed by the Guardian stood at £31,029. Some of the higher paid roles include air traffic controllers, who earn £94,000 a year on average, and doctors, who earn £61,000.

Key workers – who include doctors, nurses, midwives, teachers, nursery staff, police and transport workers – are entitled to send their children to schools and nurseries, which are closed indefinitely for the majority of students.

The Guardian analysis found equivalents for job roles mentioned in the government’s list of key workers in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings dataset published by the Office for National Statistics. The list of equivalents found will not include all key workers. Earnings are based on full and part time workers’s median earnings in 2019.

U.S. ARMY INVADES VIRUS PLAGUED EUROPE

U.S. Army invades virus plagued Europe

March 17, 2020

Richard Colbeck grilled on Q+A over Morrison Government’s coronavirus response

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/q+a-covid-19-edition-sees-senator-richard-colbeck-under-fire/12060400

Updated yesterday at 8:45am

“The Minister for Aged Care, Youth and Sport, Senator Richard Colbeck, has shouldered heavy criticism that the Federal Government has handled the COVID-19 outbreak poorly — not delivering consistent messaging and lagging behind other parts of the world in its response to the crisis. . . .”

People’s Assembly Statement on The Coronavirus Crisis

https://www.thepeoplesassembly.org.uk/index.php/news/16-people-s-assembly-statement-on-the-coronavirus-crisis

THIS IS THE COPY OF AN ARTICLE THAT MAKES GREAT SENSE TO ME, UTA:

“The people are ahead of the government in making serious moves to combat the spread of the coronavirus. It is clear the government were pushed by organisations already taking action to close down large events, a move we very much welcome. Where government refuses to act civil society institutions, trade unions, and ordinary citizens are taking matters into their own hands. We reject the ‘herd immunity’ theory that coronavirus can simply be left to rip through society until enough people develop immunity. Not only is there no proof this will happen with this virus, it is the most deadly and careless approach the government could take. The government should be acting on World Health Organisation guidance and learning from those countries it commends for swift and decisive action. Older and vulnerable people matter as much as everyone else. We insist the government alter course immediately and implement the following measures:

1. Close all schools, universities and colleges. Government and Local Authorities to work with schools to develop plans to get food to children who would have been entitled to free school meals.

2. Mass testing and tracing, which World Health Organisation experts have suggested is more effective in the early stages.

3. Workers should be allowed to work from home where possible. Introduce a mortgage and rent freeze for the duration of the crisis for those workers denied their full pay.

4. Extend statutory sick pay to all workers. Following successful pressure on the government to give sick pay from day one for those affected by the virus. Statutory sick pay should be uplifted to a living wage.

5. Pensioners on low-incomes, low income workers and disabled people to be eligible for one-off grants to cover food, fuel and travel costs.

6. Scrap the assessment period for Universal Credit and make payments immediately. Sanctions for benefit claimants who don’t attend appointments should be scrapped. Universal Credit payments should be topped up to account for extra costs of preparing for virus and moving to shut down.

7. Price controls to be introduced on essential medical equipment and drugs. There must be no hiking of prices on masks, ventilators, isolation units, beds, basic supplies like soap and hand towels, as well as drugs to combat bacterial complications etc.

8. Private hospitals to be put under the management of the NHS. Essential equipment owned by private companies should be pooled as part of the overall effort; private hospital beds should be treated as public.

9. Cleaners are a vital frontline, as are NHS staff. They should both be given an immediate pay boost to attract more cleaners, nurses, hospital porters and administrators. All workers should have the protective clothing necessary in line with TUC guidelines.

10. No scapegoating of Chinese people, Italians, immigrants or anyone else. An emergency programme of aid and refugee resettlement should be initiated across Europe.

11. The outbreak must not be used as a pretext for clamping down on civil liberties. Frontline public sector workers, especially health workers, should be brought in at the highest level of decision making. The trade unions should be part of the conversation with civil servants and senior NHS staff.”

Why-dont-doctors-trust-women-because-they-dont-know-much-about-us

By Gebrielle Jackson

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/02/why-dont-doctors-trust-women-because-they-dont-know-much-about-us

“Plato characterised the womb as a voracious animal wandering the female body and sucking its life force.”

What else did Plato say about women?

Thunberg: ‘Indigenous Peoples Lead the Fight Against Crisis’

By teleSUR

07 February 20

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Bolsonaro facilitates business activities in the Indigenous Peoples’ Amazonian lands.

he Fridays For Future (FFF) movement activist Greta Thunberg praised the role of Indigenous peoples in the fight against global climate change during a demonstration in Jokkmokk, Sweden, on Friday.

“We must give voice to Indigenous peoples around the world because we depend on them, even if we don’t want to accept it,” Thunberg said.

The organization Saminourra reported how the effects of climate change affect the Lapps’ daily lives, especially reindeer herding, a fundamental activity in the culture of the Sami, an Arctic Indigenous people of about 80,000 persons who are spread across Norway, Russia, Finland, and Sweden.

“We are in a serious climate crisis and the Indigenous people are the ones who are first and most affected,” Thunberg stressed.

“They lead the fight and are the ones who resist the most. They are the front line. We support them.”

The founder of the FFF movement also recalled that solutions to climate-related environmental problems should include the knowledge of Indigenous peoples “who live from and with nature.”

Thunberg’s positive appreciation for indigenous traditional knowledge, however, is not shared by those who work in favor of transnational corporations.

On Thursday, Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro presented a bill to facilitate agribusiness, mining activities, oil extraction, and hydroelectric construction in Indigenous peoples’ territories located in the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest.

In response to the harsh criticism that his bill is receiving, the former captain said that he would like to lock environmental activists in the Amazon, which meant an ironic allusion to what South American dictatorships used to do with leftist political prisoners who were sent to prisons in the jungle.

“Are we going to suffer pressure from environmentalists? Someday, if I can, I confine them to the Amazon because they like nature very much. Stop bothering here in the cities,” Bolsonaro said, as reported by local outlet Petroleo E Gas.