Category: Uncategorized

Number Games

This is an Extract from an Article in The Guardian

See here: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/21/climate-change-scienceofclimatechange?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

Number games

What about the HANDY model itself? Is it too simplistic? Kloor’s modelling expert turns out to be an obscure student in Mathematical Ecology specialising in the modelling of Plankton, who pooh-poohs the study as oversimplistic as it has only four equations. But this simply misses the point.

An academic conference paper on the HANDY model by a cross-disciplinary team of natural and social scientists led by Dr Rodrigo Castro of the Department of Environmental Systems Science at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, delivered earlier this month, explains in detail why the HANDY model is so useful:

“It is our predicament that we live in a finite world, and yet we behave as if it were infinite. Steady exponential material growth with no limits on resource consumption and population is the dominant conceptual model used by today’s decision makers. This is an approximation of reality that is no longer accurate and started to break down. The World3 model, originally developed in the 1970s [aka the ‘Limits to Growth’ project which despite Kloor’s dismissals has turned out quite accurate according to American Scientist], includes many rather detailed aspects of human society and its interaction with a resource limited planet. However, World3 is a rather complex model. Therefore it is valuable for pedagogical reasons to show how similar behavior can be also realized with models that are much simpler. This paper presents a series of world models, starting with very simple exponential growth and predator-prey systems, then investigates a minimal human-nature model, Handy, and ends with a brief account of the World3 model. For the first time, a simple human-nature interaction model is made available in Modelica that distinguishes between dynamics of Elite and Commoner social groups. It is shown that Handy can reproduce rather complex behavior with a very simple model structure, as compared to that of world models like World3.”

The HANDY model’s utility, in other words, is precisely its ability to reproduce complex behaviour despite a simple model structure. Its most unique feature is described as follows:

“An interesting feature of Handy is that it introduces the accumulation of economic wealth, and divides the human population into rich and poor according to their unequal access to available wealth…

Social inequality is not only explicitly considered but also plays a key role in the sustainability analyses of the model. This makes Handy the first model of its kind that studies the impacts of inequality on the fate of societies, a capability seldom found even in complex world models.

Handy establishes a useful general framework that allows carrying out ‘thought experiments’ about societal collapse scenarios and the changes that might avoid them.

The model is a very strong simplification of the human-nature system, which results in many limitations. Despite its simplicity, such a model is easy to understand and offers a more intuitive grasp of underlying dynamical phenomena compared to more complex and less aggregated models.”

It is precisely this unique feature which enabled the HANDY model to depart from the work of Tainter to explore the potential instabilities of the rampant inequality in today’s global economy.

Facts about Asylum Seekers

I, Aunty Uta,  did get the following from a reply to:

About

Crossborder Operational Matters

posted February 1, 2014 at 10:21 am by d0tski

I do not know how to contact d0tski to get his permission to reblog. I did find what he wrote an excellent contribution. I wished I was articulate and knowledgeable enough to write something similar myself. d0tski wrote this:

 

“Here’s what I’ve been thinking about lately:

Polling shows that 59% of people polled do NOT believe that most asylum seekers who arrive by boat are genuine refugees. Only 30% believed that most boat arrivals are genuine refugees.
Now, those of us who get our news from someone other than Murdoch know this not to be true. We know that greater than 90% of people who arrive by boat will later (much later), be recognised as ‘genuine refugees’.

Of the 1000 people surveyed, 60% felt that boat-arrivals should be treated more harshly.

59% of those surveyed felt that boat-arrivals should not receive financial government assistance.

All these figures tell us that the majority of Australians have no idea who is on these boats. No concept of the types of persecution they are fleeing. No idea that there is no ‘queue’ for asylum seekers to be processed and re-settled. They don’t realise that (for example), in 2011, only 0.7% of the worlds refugees were resettled. These figures also show us that people do not know, or do not believe, that the conditions on Manus and Nauru are tantamount to torture.

Personally, I refuse to believe that people don’t care. I’m convinced that the problem is that people DON’T KNOW.

This needs to change. Television shows such as those shown on the ABC’s “4 Corners”, and SBS’ “Go Back To Where You Came From” are great. I always watch them. But truly, they are preaching to the choir.
Add to that the fact that it is nigh-on impossible to get decent reportage out of these places. Successive governments have made it increasingly difficult for us to know what is going on. For the Abbott government, it’s pretty much their modus operandi.

How do you get the rest of Australia to listen and learn? I don’t know. If we knew that, we wouldn’t have this problem.

I don’t have any answers here, so if you read this far hoping for a revelation, I apologise 🙂 I just think it’s important to know what the problems are before trying to come up with a solution.

Actually, there’s one other thought I’ve had. Have you heard of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs? If you did psych in highschool, you probably covered it. It’s basically the idea that humans have a hierarchy of needs that looks like a pyramid. The greatest needs are at the bottom, and include physiological needs like breathing, food, water etc. We move up the pyramid through Safety, Belonging, Esteem, and eventually (so the theory goes) we reach Self Actualisation at the top.
Now, it’s my personal theory that governments like to try and keep most of their constituents near the bottom of the pyramid. If we’re all worrying about where our next meal may come from, job security, and mundane things like that, we’re never going to get to a point where our greatest needs are ones like morality, truth and creativity. It is in the governments’ (not just in Oz, but all over) best interest that we live in a permanent state of fear. They want us to always worry that someone is going to come and take what is ‘rightfully ours.’ They appeal to our most basic emotions of fear and greed.

Once again, I don’t know how you change that.”

 

 

Aunty Uta’s Comment to this Post by Dotski:

On the first of March, 2014, that is just a few weeks ago, I published the above under the heading: Apologies to the Author.

Today I came across it once more and read it again with great interest. In my opinion this is a very well written article.  I like it so much that I post it here again. I feel it is very saddening that so many people do not know the true facts about Asylum Seekers. Dotski says he does not know how to change that. Does anybody know?

 

 

Gratitude – 150000 blog likes

What an amazing number of Blog Likes for Ajaytao!

He says: “I am not a writer but take this opportunity to share with you some beautiful quotes and a poem to lighten up this occasion of humbled happiness.”

In this gratitude post by Ajaytao I noticed a beautiful gratitude poem by anon and some quotes by different people that I like very much. I was very impressed with this selection. This is why I reblogged this post trusting that some of my readers are going to enjoy having a look at this post by Ajaytao.  🙂

Answering Some Questions

Jenni's avatarUnload and Unwind

australia I’ve done a couple of posts regarding Australian humour and our assorted flora and fauna that continues to fascinate so many people and I’ve realised that from a lot of the comments that I get there is a great deal that people living outside my country don’t know or the information is gathered courtesy of Crocodile Dundee [thank you for THAT Paul Hogan].

So I’ve decided that over the next few weeks I’ll intersperse some posts, regarding different aspects of life in Australia as well as some of the more exotic of our native animals, with the other items that I put up for public view.  However I think it would be good to start this series with a simple introduction to Australia and Australians.

Now I may spend a great deal of time arguing that my country’s government has lost its mind [which I AM right about]…

View original post 93 more words

Migration, the University, and What the Hell is a Knowledge Economy?

worriedteacher's avatarconfessions of a worried teacher

I tend to go to work relatively early – not out of any conscientiousness, simply because I wake early and get bored.  While much of the day the corridors and stairways thong with students and faculty going about their ‘knowledge work’, the early morning presents a different kind of labour.  I greet the cleaners, the silent bodies of our public buildings, clearing away the debris left by student and staff alike, making the place ready for another day of knowledge-intensive activity.  There is a sense in which my articulated identity as a knowledge worker, of an academic identity construed in large part by identification with epistemic communities, is quite separate from that of the cleaners I say hello to.  I am forced to contemplate the nature of this encounter, and in particular my privileged position.  I encounter something more than just different functional roles – after all there is a…

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Struggling with Precarity: From More and Better Jobs to Less and Lesser Work

wandavra's avatarThe Disorder Of Things

Once a French neologism, precarity is now a household name describing in equal measure the fate of low-wage, part-time holders of bullshit jobs, seasonal and migrant workers, creative entrepreneurs of the self, “graduates with no future,” foreclosed homeowners, debtors and increasingly even segments of the salaried bourgeoisie. At its most basic, a term for the economic uncertainty and existential angst associated with the dissolution of fixed employment, precarity also suggests the disintegration of stable societal bonds, occupational identities, social protections and a sense of entitlement and belonging characteristic of the old proletariat. In short, then, precarity is the experiential dimension of the crisis of the society of work dating back to the 70s and 80s.

Diego Rivera Detroit Industry Mural 1923

Increasingly advanced production methods, introduced since the 70s to tame shop-floor insubordination as well as reap the untapped potentials of global competition, have caused a decline in growth rates, which no amount of…

View original post 1,964 more words

IN AUSTRALIA

Vitamin D deficiency is an important health issue
This June 20, 2014, marks National Vitamin D Awareness Day – taking place on the eve of the shortest day of the year when daylight is most limited.

This important health initiative is on again in 2014 and aims to highlight the number of Vitamin D deficiencies in Australia, its impact on our health and wellbeing, as well as workplace productivity. On this day all workers are encouraged to step outside for a daily dose of sun and Vitamin D. Whether it’s a staff BBQ, outdoor meeting or team building session – by taking a ‘D-Break’ you’ll be helping to raise awareness of the importance of Vitamin D and bone health, as well as fostering a happier and healthier workplace.

For more information on the corporate wellness initiative call 07) 3119 2497.

 

The following is from this website: http://www.ostelin.com.au/vitamin-d/sunlight-vitamin/#geolocation

Sunlight and Vitamin D Synthesis

What type of sunlight provides the best vitamin D?

Exposure to the sun’s ultraviolet (UV) rays is required for vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) to be produced. Vitamin D3 is synthesized in the skin once your unprotected skin receives exposure to sunlights UV rays.

The sun emits three different types of radiation, UVA, UVB and UVC. The ozone layer is good at blocking all of the UVC radiation and most of the UVB, however, none of the UVA radiation. The UVA penetrates deep into the skin and can cause aging and wrinkles. UVB can cause sunburn and acceleration of skin aging.1 UVB radiation from the sun is also the best source of vitamin D.

The sun’s UVB rays vary tremendously and is dependant on several factors including time of day and geographical location. Below are general regarding safe sun exposure times from Osteoporosis Australia.3

Sun Exposure To Achieve Sufficient Vitamin D For People With Moderately Fair Skin^ Type II
Region Summer (Dec – Jan)
At 10am or 2pm*		 Winter (July – Aug)
At 10am or 2pm*
Northern Australia
Cairns 6-7 minutes 9-12 minutes
Townsville 5-7 minutes 9-13 minutes
Central Australia
Brisbane 6-7 minutes 15-19 minutes
Perth 5-6 minutes 20-28 minutes
Southern Australia
Sydney 6-8 minutes 26-28 minutes
Adelaide 5-7 minutes 25-38 minutes
Melbourne 6-8 minutes 32-52 minutes
Hobart 7-9 minutes 40-47 minutes
*11am or 3pm daylight saving time, respectively. Skin claissification by Fitzpatrick. Adapted from Osteoporosis Australia. Calcium, Vitamin D and Osteoporosis – A guide for consumers. 4th Edition. 2010
^Sun exposure times resulting in 1/3 minimal erythemal dose. Exposure times for people with highly pigmented skin would be 3-4 times greater.

For specific up-to-date information relating to your location, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues a UV Index forecast every day to help people to avoid overexposure to high levels of UV radiation.4 UV index range is expressed as a numeric value from 0 to 20. Numbers 3 or above are considered unsafe for sun exposure without protection.2

Risk Value
Low 0-2
Moderate 3-5
High 6-7
Very High 8-10
Extreme 11+
Table 1. UV Index 3

How does the light get converted to vitamin D in the skin?

When ultraviolet rays from sunlight penetrate the skin, they react with 7-dehydrocholesterol which is a precursor to cholesterol. This reaction forms vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) in the skin. It is then quickly converted by the liver to the prehormone 25(OH)D and then further converted in the kidneys to the hormone 1,25(OH)D2 which is the active form of vitamin D.5

– See more at: http://www.ostelin.com.au/vitamin-d/sunlight-vitamin/#geolocation

– See more at: http://www.ostelin.com.au/awarenessday/#sthash.x64rnb1j.dpuf

Vitamin D, Information on the latest vitamin D news and research.

The Vitami D Council tells you how vitamin D relates to your health.

One question and answer is:

“Can I get sun exposure and take supplements?

Yes. In fact, that is the Vitamin D Council’s recommendation. On days that you do not get enough full body sun exposure, it is important to take a supplement. For most people on the Monday-Friday indoor work schedule, that means taking a supplement 5-6 days a week and getting sun exposure on a day or two during the weekend.”

Have a look what else the Vitamin D Council recommends:

http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/about-vitamin-d/how-do-i-get-the-vitamin-d-my-body-needs/